SWM ETF portfolios: 2019 outlook and 2018 performance

2018 proved to be a horrible year for all asset classes. SWM’s ETF portfolios were not spared. Although we managed to outperform our benchmarks in every strategy, this is of little comfort when every strategy is negative for the year. The declines were graded in a linear way across our strategies, with fixed-income losing 3%, through to equity losing 9%.

All our ETF strategies continue to outperform their benchmarks materially on a 5-year horizon. 2018 saw the toxic combination of rising interest rates and slowing global growth. The 12% market decline in Q4 2018 was matched only during the Great Depression and following the attack on Pearl Harbour.

Market consensus now firmly expects an equity bear market and global recession. We beg to differ, and believe that markets are currently oversold. We expect at least one more strong up-leg in the ageing bull market before a long-term top is reached. We will look to reposition our portfolios defensively when our signals indicate this top is approaching.

Please follow this link to read Secure Wealth Management’s monthly ETF portfolio review for December 2018.


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